ENSO ensemble prediction: Initial error perturbations vs. model error perturbations

• 来源期刊: 科学通报（英文版）
• 年，卷（期）: 2009,（14）
• 页码范围: 2516-2523
• 页数: 8页
• 语种: 英文
• DOI: 10.1007/s11434-009-0179-2

摘要

Based on our developed ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) ensemble prediction system (EPS), the impacts of stochastic initial-error and model-error perturbations on ENSO ensemble predictions are examined and discussed by performing four sets of 14-a retrospective forecast experiments in both a deterministic and probabilistic sense. These forecast schemes are differentiated by whether they considered the initial or model stochastic perturbations. The comparison results suggest that the stochastic model-error perturbations, which are added into the modeled physical fields to mainly represent the uncertainties of the physical model, have significant, positive impacts on improving the ensemble prediction skills during the entire 12-month forecast process. However, the stochastic initial-error perturbations have relatively small impacts on the ensemble prediction system, and its impacts are mainly focusing on the first 3-month predictions.