Application of Gray Metabolic Model in the Prediction of the Cotton Output in China

• 来源期刊: 亚洲农业研究：英文版
• 学科: 农学
• 关键词: GRAY system GM (1 1) MODEL COTTON OUTPUT China
• 年，卷（期）: 2011,（1）
• 页码范围: 1-2
• 页数: 2页
• 分类号: S562

摘要

In order to forecast the cotton output of China in the year 2011, Gray Metabolic Forecast Model is established based on both the Gray Forecast Model and the Metabolic Theory. According to the actual situation, forecast results of conventional GM (1, 1) Model and Metabolism GM (1, 1) Model are analyzed, showing that Metabolic Forecast Model has higher precision than the conventional forecast model. Therefore, Metabolism GM (1, 1) Model is used to forecast the cotton output of China in the year 2011, which is 614 968.3 thousand tons.