Cointegration Analysis on the Relation between Urbanization and Economic Growth in China

• 来源期刊: 亚洲农业研究：英文版
• 学科: 经济
• 关键词: ECONOMIC growth URBANIZATION COINTEGRATION test ER
• 年，卷（期）: 2011,（3）
• 页码范围: 133-136
• 页数: 4页
• 分类号: F299.2

摘要

This paper utilizes cointegration theory,error correcting model and Granger causality testing theory to make an empirical research on the relation between urbanization and GDP in China,and also implements a comparative analysis to the relation between three industries and degree of urbanization,the related coeffecient is 0.97,0.95,0.97,0.97.And the result shows a long-term balance between these two factors,and the promoting effect to tertiary industry by urbanization is more obvious.Urbanization and economic growth are the long-term balanced relations.In the long-term balance,every 1% increment of urbanization can make 4.82% increment of GDP;In short-term balance,if the balance depart from the long-term balance at the i-th term,the model will take automatic reversal adjustment with-0.06 adjusting strength at the(i+1)th term,to make it move to the long-term balance.The economic growth onto urbanization is one-way causality relationship,the primary and secondary industry onto urbanization is also one-way causality relationship.However,the tertiary industry onto urbanization is both-way causality relationship.