Grain Yield Prediction of Henan Province Based on Spatio-temporal Regression Model

• 来源期刊: 亚洲农业研究：英文版
• 学科: 经济
• 关键词: SPATIO-TEMPORAL regression MODEL MOVING PREDICTION
• 年，卷（期）: 2011,（8）
• 页码范围: 58-60
• 页数: 3页
• 分类号: F326.11

摘要

By using correlation analysis method,regression analysis method and time sequence method,we combine time and space,to establish grain yield spatio-temporal regression prediction model of Henan Province and all prefecture-level cities.At first,we use the grain yield in prefecture-level cities of Henan in the year 2000 and 2005,to establish regression model,and then taking the grain yield in one year as independent variable,we predict the grain yield in the fifth year afterwards.Taking the dependent variable value as independent variable again,we predict the grain yield at an interval of the same years,and based on this,predict year by year forward until the year we need.The research shows that the grain yield of Henan Province in the year 2015 and 2020 is 59.849 6 and 67.929 3 million t respectively,consistent with the research results of other scholars to some extent.