Modeling of epidemic spreading with white Gaussian noise

• 来源期刊: 科学通报(英文版)
• 学科: 医学
• 年，卷（期）: 2011,（34）
• 页码范围: 3683-3688
• 页数: 6页
• 分类号: R181.3
• 语种: 中文

摘要

Motivated by the need to include the different characteristics of individuals and the damping effect in predictions of epidemic spreading, we build a model with variant coefficients and white Gaussian noise based on the traditional SIR model. The analytic and simulation results predicted by the model are presented and discussed. The simulations show that using the variant coefficients results in a higher percentage of susceptible individuals and a lower percentage of removed individuals. When the noise is included in the model, the percentage of infected individuals has a wider peak and more fluctuations than that predicted using the traditional SIR model.