Study on Prediction Model for Spatial Distribution of the Average Temperature Based on GIS Take Hainan Island as an Example

• 作者: TAO Zhong-liang ZHANG Jing-hong ZHANG Li-li
• 来源期刊: 气象与环境研究：英文版
• 学科: 地球科学
• 关键词: 年平均温度 空间分布 预测模型 海南岛 GIS 月平均气温 垂直地带性 插值方法
• 年，卷（期）: 2012,（6）
• 页码范围: 36-40
• 页数: 5页
• 分类号: P467

摘要

[Objective] The research aimed to study prediction model for spatial distribution of the average temperature based on GIS.[Method] Average temperature over the years as research object,based on Ordinary Kriging(OK),Inverse Distance Weight(IDW),SPLINE and Mixed Interpolation(MLR),monthly temperature data from 1979 to 2008 at 18 long-term meteorological observation stations in Hainan Island were conducted spatial grid treatment.Via contrasts and analyses on different interpolation methods,the optimum interpolation method for average temperature over the years in Hainan Island was selected.[Result] By error analyses of the four interpolation methods for average temperature in recent 30 years in Hainan Island,it was found that accuracy was MLR>IDW>OK>SPLINE.Spatial interpolation effect of MLR was the best for average temperature in Hainan Island.Spatial distribution of the average temperature in Hainan Island had obvious south-high-north-low latitudinal zonality and vertical zonality of gradually declining as altitude rise.In addition,temperature along coast was slightly higher than that in inland.Lapse rate of the temperature in each month in Hainan Island was 0.38-0.85 ℃/100 m,and lapse rate of the annual average temperature was about 0.74 ℃/100 m.In different areas,lapse rate of the temperature as altitude was different at different time.[Conclusion] The research provided basis for obtaining continuous distribution situation of the agricultural meteorological factor and establishing accurate prediction model of the spatial distribution in Hainan Island.