Long-term Prediction and Verification of Rainfall Based on the Seasonal Model

• 作者: Li Xingmin Zheng Xiaohua
• 来源期刊: 气象与环境研究：英文版
• 学科: 地球科学
• 关键词: 长期预测 降雨量 季节模型 验证 降水量预测 趋势模型 专业预报 季节性
• 年，卷（期）: 2014,（5）
• 页码范围: 13-14
• 页数: 2页
• 分类号: P332.1

摘要

Using the seasonal cross-multiplication trend model,monthly precipitation of eight national basic weather stations of Shaanxi Province from2005 to 2010 was predicted,and the forecast results were verified using the rainfall scoring rules of China Meteorological Administration. The verification results show that the average score of annual precipitation prediction in recent six years is higher than that made by a professional forecaster,so this model has a good prospect of application. Moreover,the level of making prediction is steady,and it can be widely used in long-term prediction of rainfall.