Assessment of Agricultural Drought Risk in the Sichuan Basin Based on Information Diffusion Theory

• 作者: Chen Jianjie Lin Zhongguan Luan Jian Wang Di Wang Peng
• 来源期刊: 气象与环境研究：英文版
• 学科: 农学
• 关键词: 信息扩散理论 农业干旱 四川盆地 风险评估 干旱风险 风险区划 农业旱情 播种面积
• 年，卷（期）: 2014,（5）
• 页码范围: 15-21
• 页数: 7页
• 分类号: S423

摘要

Based on data of agricultural drought situation and sown area of main crops in each county or district of the Sichuan Basin,the spatial distribution and probability of agricultural drought risk at different risk levels were studied using normal information diffusion method,and the risk zoning was carried out. The results showed that normal information diffusion method could fit the distribution of agricultural drought risk in the Sichuan Basin. By comparison with the end of the 20thcentury,agricultural drought risk in Meishan,Chongqing City and so on increased at the beginning of the21stcentury when xi≥10% or xi≥40%. Agricultural drought risk was low in the west of the Sichuan Basin,which was related to rich precipitation here,but it was high in Bazhong,Zhongjiang,Luxian and so forth. The risk zoning results can provide scientific references for disaster prevention and emergency management of government.