Hindsight Bias in Cause Analysis of Accident

• 作者: Atsuo Murata Yasunari Matsushita
• 来源期刊: 心理学研究：英文版
• 学科: 哲学
• 关键词: hindsight COGNITIVE bias OVERESTIMATION of probability crucial ACCIDENT
• 年，卷（期）: 2014,（11）
• 页码范围: 843-851
• 页数: 9页
• 分类号: B

摘要

It is suggested that hindsight becomes an obstacle to the objective investigation of an accident, and that the proper countermeasures for the prevention of such an accident is impossible if we view the accident with hindsight. Therefore, it is important for organizational managers to prevent hindsight from occurring so that hindsight does not hinder objective and proper measures to be taken and this does not lead to a serious accident. In this study, a basic phenomenon potentially related to accidents, that is, hindsight was taken up, and an attempt was made to explore the phenomenon in order to get basically insights into the prevention of accidents caused by such a cognitive bias.