Statistical Models for Forecasting Tourists’ Arrival in Kenya

• 作者: Albert Orwa Akuno Charles Wambugu Mwangi Lawrence Areba Bichanga Michael Oduor Otieno
• 来源期刊: 统计学期刊(英文)
• 学科: 医学
• 关键词: EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING ARIMA Model Tourists’ ARRIVAL DATA
• 年，卷（期）: 2015,（1）
• 页码范围: 60-65
• 页数: 6页
• 分类号: R73

摘要

In this paper, an attempt has been made to forecast tourists’ arrival using statistical time series modeling techniques—Double Exponential Smoothing and the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). It is common knowledge that forecasting is very important in making future decisions such as ordering replenishment for an inventory system or increasing the capacity of the available staff in order to meet expected future service delivery. The methodology used is given in Section 2 and the results, discussion and conclusion are given in Section 3. When the forecasts from these models were validated, Double Exponential Smoothing model performed better than the ARIMA model.