Historical Phase-Locked El Niño Episodes

• 作者: Benjamin S. Giese David H. Douglass Robert S. Knox Scott Curtis Sulagna Ray
• 来源期刊: 大气和气候科学(英文)
• 学科: 医学
• 关键词: Climate CLIMATOLOGY Solar FORCING Seasonal Effects EL Ni?o Phase Locking
• 年，卷（期）: 2017,（1）
• 页码范围: 48-64
• 页数: 17页
• 分类号: R73

摘要

Using a newly reported Pacific sea surface temperature data set, we extend a prior study that assigned El Ni&#241o episodes to distinct sequences. Within these sequences the episodes are phase-locked to subharmonics of the annual solar irradiance cycle having two- or three-year periodicity. There are 40 El Ni&#241o episodes occurring since 1872, each found within one of eighteen such sequences. Our list includes all previously reported events. Three El Ni&#241o episodes have already been observed in boreal winters of 2009, 2012 and 2015, illustrating a sequence of 3-year intervals that began in 2008. If the climate system remains in this state, the next El Ni&#241o is likely to occur in boreal winter of 2018.