Forecasting Foreign Direct Investment to Zambia: A Time Series Analysis

• 作者: Bornwell Kasense Obvious Chilyabanyama Stanley Jere
• 来源期刊: 统计学期刊(英文)
• 学科: 医学
• 关键词: Foreign Direct INVESTMENT Simple EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING Holt-Winters EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING AUTOREGRESSIVE Integrated Moving AVERAGE Forecasting
• 年，卷（期）: tjxqkyw_2017,（1）
• 页码范围: 122-131
• 页数: 10页
• 分类号: R73

摘要

Three methods are considered in this paper: Simple exponential smoothing (SES), Holt-Winters exponential smoothing (HWES) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The best fit model was then used to forecast Zambia’s annual net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows from 1970 to 2014. Foreign direct investment is foreign capital investment to Zambia. Throughout the paper the methods are illustrated using Zambia’s annual Net FDI inflows. A comparison of the three methods shows that the ARIMA (1, 1, 5) is the best fit model because it has the minimum error. Forecasting results give a gradual increase in annual net FDI inflows of about 44.36% by 2024. Forecasting results plays a vital role to policy makers. Decision making, coming up with good policies and suitable strategic plans, depends on accurate forecasts. Zambian FDI policy makers can use the results obtained in this study and create suitable strategic plans to promote FDI.