Analysis and Forecast of MSW Production Based on the ARIMA Model in Beijing

• 作者: Dai Zhifeng Wang Guiqin Zhang Hongyu
• 来源期刊: 气象与环境研究：英文版
• 学科: 地球科学
• 关键词: MSW ARIMA model PRODUCTION FORECAST TIME series analysis
• 年，卷（期）: 2017,（6）
• 页码范围: 32-35
• 页数: 4页
• 分类号: P

摘要

Based on the data of MSW generation in Beijing from 2004 to 2012, an ARIMA model of time series analysis was established. By contrast of the modeling results of different yearly data, the forecast period was identified to be 10 years. The yearly production of MSW from 2015 to2025 was forecasted by using SPSS 16.0 software. Result shows that the forecasting effect of ARIMA (1,0,1 )model is relatively good,and it can be applied to prediction of MSW production in Beijing. In the next 10 years, the amount of MSW produced in Beijing is increasing, but the growth rate is not large. Is expected to 2025, the production of MSW will reach more than 9 million tons. Taking into account the MSW return, it is inferred that the production of MSW in Beijing in 2025 will be close to 10 million tons. In order to reduce the pressure of subsequent waste disposal facilities in Beijing, the government can increase the intensity of the recycling of waste materials.