一种可能的地震前兆及其应用问题的讨论

• 作者: 尹志强 王博 王红旗 田立丽 韩延本
• 来源期刊: 科学通报
• 年，卷（期）: 2017,（14）
• 所属期刊栏目: 观点
• 页码范围: 1439-1445
• 页数: 7页
• 语种: 中文
• DOI: 10.1360/N972016-00947

摘要

A strong earthquake may create a large number of casualties and huge property losses.Due to the crustal structure and geotectonic movement are complex,the geophysical process during the gestation and occurrence of earthquake is extremely complex.So it is very difficult to forecast an earthquake in advance.Through studying and testing to find effectual earthquake precursors is one of the key for meliorating earthquake prediction.A phenomenon that short-term anomalies appeared in residuals of astronomical time and latitude observations before major earthquakes,which occurred in regions around the astrometric instruments,was discovered by Chinese astronomers after Tangshan Earthquake in 1976.The phenomenon called the abnormalities of the residuals of astronomical time and latitude observations (ATLR).The major characteristics of the phenomenon are generalized as follows:(1) before earthquakes that occurred in the area of several hundred kilometers radius around the instruments,short-term anomalies appeared in the three point smoothing sequence of five days average values of ATLR;(2) short-term anomalies often appeared before the earthquakes as follows,earthquakes of M≥7 within 3 or 4 hundred kilometers around instruments or M≥6 within 1 or 2 hundred kilometers around instruments as well as the moderate earthquakes that occurred at close range;(3) anomalies appeared in advance by about several weeks to several months before earthquakes;(4) situations of residuals anomalies without earthquake and earthquakes without residuals anomaly existed introduction of characteristics and research progress of the phenomenon.ATLR anomalies may be from the variation of the vertical,which is the datum line of such astrometric instruments,due to the anomalous motion of underground mass.The possibility that using the observations to provide information for strong earthquakes in advance has been researched and related tests to provide forecast information have made in China in the years.Present results and tests showed that the phenomenon would possibly become a kind of significant short-term earthquake precursors.However,observations of one instrument can only reflect the vertical variations within a certain range around the instrument,so ATLR of one station cannot afford the information of position and magnitude of an earthquake.To set up an observational network using seemly astrometric telescopes in seismogenetic zone will be needful for finding significant forecasting information.The new Digital Zenith Telescope (DZT) which has characters of high precision,robotization,miniaturization and low cost was made in China recently years.DZT is propitious to set up such observational network.The scheme on setting up observational network is put forward.The notions and problems related to network are discussed.

作者信息

序号	姓名	单位	发文数	被引次数	H指数	G指数
1	王博	中国科学院国家天文台	70	344	10.0	17.0
2	韩延本	中国科学院国家天文台	22	82	5.0	9.0
3	尹志强	中国科学院国家天文台	7	0	0.0	0.0
4	田立丽	中国科学院国家天文台	2	0	0.0	0.0
5	王红旗	中国科学院国家天文台	2	0	0.0	0.0