Load forecasting using 24 solar terms

• 作者: Jingrui XIE Tao HONG
• 来源期刊: 现代电力系统与清洁能源学报(英文)
• 学科: 工学
• 关键词: 24 SOLAR TERMS CALENDAR LOAD forecasting Multiple LINEAR regression
• 年，卷（期）: 2018,（2）
• 页码范围: 208-214
• 页数: 7页
• 分类号: TM715

摘要

Calendar is an important driving factor of electricity demand. Therefore, many load forecasting models would incorporate calendar information. Frequently used calendar variables include hours of a day, days of a week,months of a year, and so forth. During the past several decades, a widely-used calendar in load forecasting is the Gregorian calendar from the ancient Rome, which dissects a year into 12 months based on the Moon’s orbit around the Earth. The applications of alternative calendars have rarely been reported in the load forecasting literature. This paper aims at discovering better means than Gregorian calendar to categorize days of a year for load forecasting.One alternative is the solar-term calendar, which divides the days of a year into 24 terms based on the Sun’s position in the zodiac. It was originally from the ancient China to guide people for their agriculture activities. This paper proposes a novel method to model the seasonal change for load forecasting by incorporating the 24 solar terms in regression analysis. The case study is conducted for the eight load zones and the system total of ISO New England.Results from both cross-validation and sliding simulationshow that the forecast based on the 24 solar terms is more accurate than its counterpart based on the Gregorian calendar.