CONDITIONAL NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATIONS: APPLICATION IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS

• 作者: LI Ze-chun TIAN Hong-jun WANG Bin WANG Dong-liang
• 来源期刊: 热带气象学报（英文版）
• 学科: 地球科学
• 年，卷（期）: 2019,（4）
• 页码范围: 421-436
• 页数: 16页
• 分类号: P444
• 语种: 英文
• DOI: 10.16555/j.1006-8775.2019.04.001

摘要

Considering the feature of tropical cyclones (TCs) that strong positive vorticity exists in the lower layers of troposphere,this study proposed to use vorticity at 850 hPa as cost function to find the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP),which was largely different from previous studies using total energy of perturbed forecast variables.The CNOP was obtained by an ensemble-based approach.All of the sensitive areas determined by CNOP with vorticity at 850 hPa as cost function for the three cases were located over the TC core region and its vicinity.The impact of the CNOP-based adaptive observations on TC forecasts was evaluated with three cases via observational system simulation experiments (OSSEs).Results showed obvious improvements in TC intensity or track forecasts due to the CNOP-based adaptive observations,which were related to the main error source of the verification area,i.e.,intensity error or location error.

作者信息

序号	姓名	单位	发文数	被引次数	H指数	G指数
1	TIAN Hong-jun		1	0	0.0	0.0
2	LI Ze-chun		1	0	0.0	0.0
3	WANG Dong-liang		1	0	0.0	0.0
4	WANG Bin		1	0	0.0	0.0