Influence of Sino-US Agricultural Trade on China’s Total Agricultural Output Value Based on Cointegration Model

• 作者: Zhiyao LI
• 来源期刊: 亚洲农业研究:英文版
• 学科: 经济
• 关键词: TRADE of agricultural products between China and the UNITED STATES Econometric MODEL CO-INTEGRATION analysis Error CORRECTION MODEL
• 年，卷（期）: 2019,（5）
• 页码范围: 7-10
• 页数: 4页
• 分类号: F323

摘要

According to the data of the total trade of agricultural products between China and the United States from 2009 to 2018 and the general description of agriculture in China,this paper adopts the method of econometric model to make a detailed analysis of the agricultural trade between China and the United States by using cointegration analysis,Granger causality test and error correction model in order to explore the impact of agricultural trade between China and the United States on China’s agricultural development. The results of empirical analysis show that there is a balanced relationship between the trade of agricultural products between China and the United States and the development of agriculture in China. The total trade of agricultural products between China and the United States affects the development of China’s agriculture.In addition,in the short term,if the short-term fluctuation deviates from the long-term equilibrium,then the error correction term will reverse it with strength of 0. 378,so that the non-equilibrium state will gradually return to the equilibrium state.