Prediction verification of solar cycles 18-24 and a preliminary prediction of the maximum amplitude of solar cycle 25 based on the Precursor Method

• 作者: Juan Miao Ting-Ling Ren Xin Wang Zhi-Tao Li
• 来源期刊: 天文和天体物理学研究
• 年，卷（期）: 2020,（1）
• 页码范围: 27-34
• 页数: 8页
• 语种: 英文
• DOI: 10.1088/1674-4527/20/1/4

摘要

Predictions of the strength of solar cycles are important and are necessary for planning long-term missions.A new solar cycle 25 is coming soon,and the amplitude is needed for space weather operators.Some predictions have been made using different methods and the values are drastically different.However,since 2015 July 1,the original sunspot number data have been entirely replaced by the Version 2.0 data series,and the sunspot number values have changed greatly.In this paper,using Version 2 smoothed sunspot numbers and aa indices,we verify the predictions for cycles 18-24 based on Ohl's Precursor Method.Then a similar-cycles method is used to evaluate the aa minimum of 9.7 (±1.1) near the start of cycle 25 and based on the linear regression relationship between sunspot maxima and aa minima,our predicted Version 2 maximum sunspot number for cycle 25 is 121.5 (±32.9).