Modelling the iron ore price index:A new perspective from a hybrid data reconstructed EEMD-GORU model

• 作者: Fan Zhang Jingjing Tuo
• 来源期刊: 管理科学学报（英文）
• 年，卷（期）: 2020,（3）
• 所属期刊栏目: RESEARCH ARTICLES
• 页码范围: 212-225
• 页数: 14页
• 语种: 英文

摘要

As iron ore is the fundamental steel production resource, predicting its price is strategically important for risk management at related enterprises and projects. Based on a signal decomposition technology and an artificial neural network, this paper proposes a hybrid EEMD-GORU model and a novel data reconstruction method to explore the price risk and fluctuation correlations between China's iron ore futures and spot markets, and to forecast the price index series of China's and international iron ore spot markets from the futures market. The analysis found that the iron ore futures market in China better reflected the price fluctuations and risk factors in the imported and international iron ore spot markets. However, the forward price in China's iron ore futures market was unable to adequately reflect the changes in the domestic iron ore market, and was therefore unable to fully disseminate domestic iron ore market information. The proposed model was found to provide better market risk perceptions and predictions through its combinations of the different volatility information in futures and spot markets. The results are valuable ref-erences for the early-warning and management of the related enterprise project risks.