Propulsion Shaft and Gearbox Failure in Marine Vessels: A Duration Model Analysis

• 作者: C. C. Igboanusi D. E. Onwuegbuchunam I. C. Ogwude K. O. Okeke N. N. Azian
• 来源期刊: 交通科技期刊(英文)
• 学科: 数学
• 关键词: Shaft and Gearbox Failure Propulsion System Hazard Rates Survival Analysis Service Boats
• 年，卷（期）: jtkjqkyw_2020,（4）
• 页码范围: 291-305
• 页数: 15页
• 分类号: O17

摘要

The need to mitigate downtime in<span style="font-family:;" "=""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">marine vessels arising </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">from propulsion system failures has led ship operating companies to devote enormous resources for</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">research based solutions. This paper applied duration models to determine</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">failure probabilities of shaft and gearbox systems in service boats. Using dockyard’s event history data on boat</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">repairs and maintenance, we applied Kaplan Meier hazard and survival curves to analyse</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">probability of failure</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">of shaft and gearbox</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""> </span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">systems in supply, crew and tug boats. We found that average time to shaft and gearbox failure was 8.33, 5.23 and 5.21 months for tug, supply and crew boats respectively. The hazard plots however, showed that supply boats had higher probability of failure than crew boats and then tug boats in that order. Further analysis using Cox regression model showed that </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">t</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">he boats’ shaft and gearbox system failures were significantly affected by level of lubrication oil, stress corrosion cracking and impacts on the propul</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">sion system’s components. The paper proposes that</span></span><span style="font-family:;" "=""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">design of maintenan</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">ce </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">schedules