Vulnerability of Kenya’s Water Towers to Future Climate Change: An Assessment to Inform Decision Making in Watershed Management

• 作者: Abebe Tadege Tsehayu Alphonce C. Guzha Anthony M. Musili Artan Guleid Brehan Doud Dickson Lubanga Makanji Enock Kanyanya Geoffrey Sabiiti Hussen S. Endris John Kerkering Kenneth Kemucie Mwangi Mohammed A. Hassan Nikola Smith Thomas De Meo Viola A. Otieno Zachary Atheru
• 来源期刊: 美国气候变化期刊(英文)
• 学科: 数学
• 关键词: Kenya Water Towers Climate Change VULNERABILITY EXPOSURE Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
• 年，卷（期）: 2020,（3）
• 页码范围: 317-353
• 页数: 37页
• 分类号: O17

摘要

<div style="text-align:justify;"> <span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span>Recent trends show that in the coming decades, Kenya’s natural resources will continue to face significant pressure due to both anthropogenic and natural stressors, and this will have greater negative impacts on socio-economic development including food security and livelihoods. Understanding the impacts of these stressors is an important step to developing coping and adaptation strategies at every level. The Water Towers of Kenya play a critical role in supplying ecosystems services such as water supply, timber and non-timber forest products and regulating services such as climate and water quantity and quality. To assess the vulnerability of the Water Towers to climate change, the study adopted the IPCC AR4 framework that defines vulnerability as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The historical trends in rainfall indicate that the three Water Towers show a declining rainfall trend during the March-April-May (MAM) main rainy season, while the October-November-December (OND) short rainy season shows an increase. The temperature patterns are consistent with the domain having a common rising trend with a rate in the range of 0.3<span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:-apple-system, "font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">&#176;</span>C to 0.5<span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:-apple-system, "font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">&#176;</span>C per decade. Projection analysis considered three emissions scenarios: low-emission (mitigation) scenario (RCP2.6), a medium-level emission scenario (RCP4.5), and a high-emission (business as usual) scenario (RCP8.5). The results of the high-emission scenario show that the annual temperature over the Water Towers could rise by 3.0<span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:-apple-system, "font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">&#176;</span>C to 3.5<span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:-apple-system, "font-size