Seismic Risk Perception Assessment of Earthquake Survivors: A Case Study from the 2005 Kashmir Earthquake

• 作者: Ikramuddin Bahram Thomas R. Paradise
• 来源期刊: 地震研究(英文)
• 学科: 地球科学
• 关键词: 2005 Kashmir Earthquake Risk Perception ISLAM Hazards Studies
• 年，卷（期）: dzyjyw_2020,（5）
• 页码范围: 403-416
• 页数: 14页
• 分类号: P31

摘要

Following the catastrophic earthquake of October 2005 in Kashmir, Pakistan, 215 surveys were administered to earthquake survivors in villages within 50 miles (80</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">km) of the epicenter near the town of Muzaffarabad. The survey questionnaires were designed to address perceptions of seismic knowledge, event-related behavior, and opinions of local, regional, and national seismic preparedness and mitigation</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">representing a rare opportunity in seismic risk assessment. Some of the findings were similar to previous research results, while some were counter-intuitive, surprising, and valuable. Overwhelmingly, respondents stated that they ran away after the quake (vs. praying, taking cover, screaming, or doing nothing). Their trust in local and national governments regarding future earthquake preparedness and mitigation was high (~50%), contrary to most prior studies</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">.</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> Less than five percent of respondents believed that </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">“</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">no quake would occur again</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">”</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">, while nearly 75% responded that another quake would occur within 5</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">10 years</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">,</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> another opinion contrary to previous research. This research revealed new aspects of risk perception in the predominant Muslim communities of Northern Pakistan regarding recurrence, post-event action, and regional preparedness.