Empirical Study on the Sustainable Development of Domestic Tourism

• 作者: Shichang Shen
• 来源期刊: 统计学期刊(英文)
• 学科: 经济
• 关键词: Number of Tourists ARIMA Model Predictive Analysis
• 年，卷（期）: 2020,（4）
• 页码范围: 651-658
• 页数: 8页
• 分类号: F59

摘要

Taking the number of domestic tourists as the research object, an appropriate model is established to analyze the sustainable development of China’s tourism industry. The number of domestic tourists in China from 1985 to 2015 was taken as a sample, and the ARIMA model was established using Eviews</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">6.0. Finally, the ARIMA(0,</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">2,</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">1) model is established. After testing, the model fits well (MAPE = 7.363) and the prediction accuracy is extremely high (99.56%). The ARIMA model’s short-term prediction of the number of tourists is reasonable.