Reviewing the Oceanic Ni(n)o Index (ONI) to Enhance Societal Readiness for El Ni(n)o's Impacts

• 作者: Michael H.Glantz Ivan J.Ramirez
• 来源期刊: 国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）
• 年，卷（期）: 2020,（3）
• 所属期刊栏目: SHORT ARTICLES
• 页码范围: 394-403
• 页数: 10页
• 语种: 英文

摘要

NOAA's Oceanic Ni(n)o Index (ONI) is used to record for historical purposes the occurrence and duration of El Ni(n)o episodes,based on the monitoring of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific Ocean.The ONI is used to identify the onset of an above average SST threshold that persists for several months,encompassing both the beginning and end of an El Ni(n)o episode.The first appearance of an anomalous seasonal value of 0.5 ℃suggests with a high probability that an El Ni(n)o could emerge,but for heightened warnings,one must wait for several months.In this article,we proposed that the ONI value of 0.7 ℃ identifies a tipping point at which the El Ni(n)o event becomes locked in,which can provide addi-tional lead time for mitigative actions to be taken by societal decision makers.Our preliminary findings suggest that a first appearance of 0.7 ℃ value could serve as a credible marker of El Ni(n)o's locked-in phase,which can provide additional credibility to the current 0.5 ℃ El Ni(n)o onset indicator for at-risk societies to get ready for El Ni(n)o's foreseeable societal and ecological impacts.