Assessment of the macro-economic impacts of low-carbon road transportation policies in Chongqing,China

• 来源期刊: 气候变化研究进展（英文版）
• 年，卷（期）: 2020,（4）
• 所属期刊栏目: Greenhouse gas emission
• 页码范围: 429-441
• 页数: 13页
• 语种: 英文

摘要

Reductions in the transportation sector's carbon dioxide emissions are increasingly of global concern.As one of the first low-carbon pilot and carbon trading pilot cities,and as one of the largest automobile production bases in China,Chongqing has multiple low-carbon transportation policies that are coupled.In this study,three policy scenarios are set,including:1)improving the fuel economy of newly sold gasoline passenger cars to 5.7 1 per 100 km by 2020,2)promoting pure electric private cars to increase the share to 7％of private car sales by 2020,and 3)the policy mix scenario of the above two policies.Simulations are undertaken with the Chinese Academy of Sciences general equilibrium(CAS-GE)model,a type of computable GE model,to assess the macro-economic impact and the industrial impact of the three policy scenarios.Through the policy impact mechanism analysis and data-mapping process,the micro-economic impact analysis results,including costs and fuel savings,for the two policies from the bottom-up model are taken as the shock variables and inputs for the CAS-GE model.The results show that:1)the two policies will both have a slightly negative impact(-0.09％and-0.30％)on Chongqing's GDP in 2020;2)the employment rate will decrease by 0.12％and 0.47％,but the inflation rate will be restrained to a certain extent(-0.21％and-0.17％);and 3)the complementarity of the mixed policy can weaken the negative impact of the two policies when implemented separately.The mixed policy will reduce the GDP slightly by 0.37％,compared with the cumulative effect of the two policies implemented separately,resulting in cost-effective synergies at the macro-economic impact level;and 4)the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has an uncertain impact on the results.The method and results can provide a reference for the formulation and adjustment of low-carbon transportation policies in other large cities.