Spatial distribution and impacts of climate change on Milicia excelsa in Benin,West Africa

• 作者: Sunday Berlioz Kakpo Augustin Kossi Nounangnon Aoudji Denis Gnanguènon-Guéssè Alain Jaures Gbètoho Kourouma Koura Géoffroy Kévin Djotan Jean Cossi Ganglo
• 来源期刊: 林业研究（英文版）
• 年，卷（期）: 2021,（1）
• 所属期刊栏目: ORIGINAL PAPERS
• 页码范围: 143-150
• 页数: 8页
• 语种: 英文

摘要

African teak (Milicia excelsa (Welw.) C.C.Berg) is an endangered multi-use species.Understanding the impact of climate change on the distribution of this spe-cies may improve the ability to anticipate or recognize its decline or expansion and to take appropriate conservation measures if necessary.Ecological niche modeling was pro-jected in geographical space to study the current and future distribution of M.excelsa in Benin.MaxEnt was used to estimate the potential geographic distribution of the species under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP).Miroc 5 summaries and two RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were used as predictor variables for projections of the geo-graphic potential of this species.The performance of the model was assessed by the area under the curve (AUC),true skill statistics (TSS) and partial receiver operating character-istics (Partial ROC).From the results,M.excelsa was more a secondary species in the Guinean climatic zone and part of the Sudanian-Guinean and Sudanian climatic zone.The pro-jections show a significant decrease in suitable habitats for the species from the two RCP scenarios.Only a part of the Guinean climatic zone remained suitable and few protected areas will conserve in situ M.excelsa.For the sustainable conservation of M.excelsa,it is essential to strengthen the protection of sacred forests located in the Guinean climatic zone.