热带强火山喷发对全球极端温度和极端降水影响的数值模拟研究

• 作者: 王涛 缪家鹏 王会军 孙建奇
• 来源期刊: 气象学报（英文版）
• 年，卷（期）: 2021,（3）
• 所属期刊栏目: ORIGINAL PAPER
• 页码范围: 428-443,中插1-中插5
• 页数: 1页
• 语种: 英文

摘要

This study investigates the influences of strong tropical volcanic eruptions (SVEs) on daily temperature and precip-itation extreme events using long-term simulations from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3) and the Community Earth System Model version 1.1 (CESM1). The results indicate that the occurrences of daily hot ex-tremes and daily heavy precipitation extremes decrease over most parts of the world in the peak forcing years of SVEs. Due to the volcanic cooling effect, the average probability of daily hot extremes decreases by approximately 50％ across the globe. The decrease in intensity is stronger for midlatitude land regions and tropical South America. In contrast, daily cold extremes occur more frequently over most parts of continental regions. Globally, a cold ex-treme event expected once every 3 years under non-volcanic conditions can be expected every 1.5 years on average in the peak forcing years. Overall, the SVE-induced cooling effect plays a dominant role in regulating daily cold and hot extremes. Over high-latitude Eurasian regions, in contrast to other continental regions, the probability and intens-ity of daily cold extremes decrease due to an SVE-strengthened polar vortex and the associated temperature advec-tion anomalies. With regard to daily heavy precipitation extremes, the probability and intensity both decrease over most monsoon areas. Further analysis suggests that the reduced probability and intensity of daily heavy precipitation extremes are mainly due to the SVE-induced global decrease in the water-holding capacity.