Increased Tibetan Plateau vortex activities under 2 ℃ warming compared to 1.5 ℃ warming:NCAR CESM low-warming experiments

• 作者: LIN Zhi-Qiang GUO Wei-Dong GE Jun WU Run-Qi DU Jun
• 来源期刊: 气候变化研究进展（英文版）
• 年，卷（期）: 2021,（3）
• 所属期刊栏目: Special topic on climate change and its impact on the Third Pole and beyond
• 页码范围: 322-332
• 页数: 11页
• 语种: 英文

摘要

The Tibetan Plateau vortices (TPVs) are the major rain-producing systems over the Tibetan Plateau (TP).The activities of TPVs are closely related to TP's water source,which supplies fresh water to millions of people in Asia.Projection of the TPVs can increase understanding about the future of water supply in Asia under global warming.In this study,the possible activities of TPVs under 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ warming scenarios above the pre-industrial level are evaluated through the NCAR CESM (Community Earth System Model) Low-wanning (CESM-LW) Exper-iments.The results show that the CESM-LW well reproduces the spatio-temporal characteristics of TPVs in the historical run from 1985 to 2000.The CESM-LW suggests TPVs in warm season (May-September) increase by 15％ due to the additional 0.5 ℃ warming by the end of this century (2071-2100).It implies the greater importance of TPVs to the precipitation over the TP in the future.The changes of TPVs are closely related to the large-scale circulations adjustments.The additional 0.5 ℃ warming strengthens the temperature difference between the TP and its surrounding areas,which results in an enhanced convergence near the TP's surface and divergence in the upper troposphere by about-0.1 × 10-6 and 0.22 × 10-6 s-1,respectively.The assessment of future TPVs provides a synoptic dynamic perspective on the climate change of precipitation and water resources.