A Markov-switching dynamic regression analysis of the asymmetries related to the determinants of US crude oil production between 1982 and 2019

• 作者: Serge Djoudji Temkeng Achille Dargaud Fofack
• 来源期刊: 石油科学（英文版）
• 年，卷（期）: 2021,（2）
• 所属期刊栏目: PETROLEUM ECONOMICS & MANAGEMENT
• 页码范围: 679-686
• 页数: 8页
• 语种: 英文

摘要

The structural changes brought about by shale oil revolution have inspired this paper of which the aim is to analyze the poten-tial asymmetries related to the determinants of crude oil production in the USA.Thus,using a Markov-switching dynamic regression model in which parameters change when oil production moves from one regime to the other,it is found that for both oil production and oil relative importance,the regime that was dominant during the 1980s and the early 1990s when oil production in the USA was substantially high is the same regime that has once again become dominant in the decade corresponding to the shale oil revolution.Furthermore,the study reveals the existence of asymmetries in the relationship between US crude oil production and both manufacturing production and the consumer price index.Asymmetries are also found in the relationship between the relative importance US crude oil and manufacturing production.Finally,it is found that the intercept and the variance parameter also vary from one regime to the other,thus justifying the use of regime-dependent models.