Are Disasters a Risk to Regional Fiscal Balance?Evidence from Indonesia

• 作者: Astrid Wiyanti Alin Halimatussadiah
• 来源期刊: 国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）
• 年，卷（期）: 2021,（6）
• 所属期刊栏目: ARTICLES
• 页码范围: 839-853
• 页数: 15页
• 语种: 英文

摘要

Indonesia is an archipelago country and is fairly vulnerable to disasters.While disasters generally affect government revenue and expenditure,their effects likely vary by country.This study examines the effect of disasters on the fiscal balance,revenue,and expenditure of local governments.We used panel data and fixed effects meth-ods to estimate the degree to which disaster severity influences budgetary solvency at the district and provincial levels in Indonesia between 2010 and 2018.This study revealed that disasters can strain fiscal balance at the dis-trict and provincial levels due to a decrease in own-source revenue and an increase in social assistance expenditure,capital expenditure,consumption expenditure,and unex-pected expenditure.The district expenditure most threat-ened by disasters is consumption expenditure,while the provincial expenditure most threatened is unexpected expenditure.We also found that an increase in capital expenditure can lead to financial burden due to delays of planned projects or post-disaster reconstruction.Based on these findings,it is clear that some forms of insurance or other financing schemes are necessary to mitigate the adverse impacts of disasters on regional fiscal balance.