Economic sustainability of China's growth from the perspective of its resource and environmental supply system:National scale modeling and policy analysis

• 作者: NIU Fangqu JIANG Yanpeng
• 来源期刊: 地理学报（英文版）
• 年，卷（期）: 2021,（8）
• 所属期刊栏目: Regular Articles
• 页码范围: 1171-1186
• 页数: 16页
• 语种: 英文
• DOI: 10.1007/s11442-021-1891-3

摘要

Since the implementation of the economic reform and opening up policy in 1978,China has miraculously created long-term high-speed economic growth,but has also had to face the problem of excessive consumption of resources as well as an intensification of en-vironmental pollution.As a result,China is now facing a slowdown in development.China must maintain a certain speed of development to realize its goal of being a powerful nation,and becoming a developed country by 2050.To this end,China is facing a transformation of its economic development.There is a need to agree on an expected economic growth rate,along with the corresponding development modes or means of regulation in the medium-and long-term periods.This study developed a systematic-dynamic model to simulate the cou-pling relationship between economic growth,development modes,and the environmental supply system,and explored the possible options for future economic growth as well as the resource use and environmental protection requirements (the main factors).The results showed that to achieve the development goal of becoming a developed country by 2050,while maintaining a good ecological environment,the suitable growth rate for China's econ-omy is 3.8％-6.3％.Within this range,a growth rate of 3.8％-4.4％ was found to be relatively safe,while a growth rate of 4.4％-6.3％ required further technical progress.This study pro-vides an early warning in regard to China's environmental and development status.The study was a response to the "Future Earth" framework document and,in terms of development speed,it developed a theoretical system for the determination of resource and environmental carrying capacity (RECC).