Do Shrinking Cities Correlate with the Demogra-phic Aging Process?Evidence from Shrinking Cities in China

• 作者: Ma Jingwen Zhao Shengchuan Li Wu
• 来源期刊: 城市规划（英文版）
• 年，卷（期）: 2022,（1）
• 所属期刊栏目: Theme Documents: Demographic Change and Urban Development
• 页码范围: 33-42
• 页数: 10页
• 语种: 英文

摘要

Urban shrinkage is a world-wide phenomenon characterized by population loss in a short period of time.During this process,the de-crease of the younger generation will further accelerate the demographic aging process through lowering birth rates.Although many studies have qualitatively addressed that demographic aging could be both a result and cause of urban shrinkage,empirical studies to examine their interrelations are lacking.This paper aims to examine their interrelationships by proposing an integrated model which covers the paths,effects,and interrelation-ships between shrinking cities and demographic aging in economic,spatial,and social dimensions.Based on the data from 138 county-level cities in China,partial least-square method is used for structural equation modeling(PLS-SEM).The results show that two indirect influence paths exist be-tween shrinking cities and the demographic aging process.First,urban shrinkage has an indirect interaction with the demographic aging process via social and economic factors(path:shrinking cities ? society ? economy ? aging process).Second,urban shrinkage is also indirectly interrelated with the demographic aging process in spatial factors(path:shrinking cities ? space ? aging process).To deal with the double challenges of urban shrinkage and demographic aging,planning policies should integrate with policies in socio-economic and spatial aspects.