Impacts of anthropogenic and biophysical factors on ecological land using logistic regression and random forest:A case study in Mentougou District,Beijing,China

• 作者: TIAN Chao CHENG Lin-lin YIN Ting-ting
• 来源期刊: 山地科学学报（英文版）
• 年，卷（期）: 2022,（2）
• 所属期刊栏目: Mountain Environment
• 页码范围: 433-445
• 页数: 13页
• 语种: 英文

摘要

Ecological land is an important guarantee to maintain urban ecological security and sustainable development.Although increasing studies have been brought to ecological land,with few explorations of the relative importance of anthropogenic-natural factors and how they interact to induce the ecological land evolution.This research sought to fill this gap.In this study,18 factors,including the risk of goaf collapse,fault,prime croplands,were selected from six aspects of topography,geology,climate,accessibility,socio-economic and land control policies.logistic regression (LR) and random forest(RF) models were adopted to identify the anthropogenic and biophysical factors on the dynamic change of ecological land of Mentougou in Beijing from 1990 to 2018.The results show that there was a significant increase in ecological land from 1990 to 2018.The increased area of ecological land reached 102.11 km2 with an increased rate of 0.78,the gravity center of ecological land gradually moved to the northwest.The impact of anthropogenic factors on ecological land was greater than that of natural factors,ecological land was mainly driven by proportion of prime cropland,per capita GDP,land urbanization,temperature,per capita rural income,elevation and aspect factors.Additionally,slope and precipitation were also identified as important predictors for ecological land change.The model comparison suggested that RF can better identify the relationship between ecological land and explanatory variables than LR model.Based on our findings,the implementation of government policies along with anthropogenic factors are the most important variables influencing ecological land change,and the rational planning and allocation of ecological land by Mentougou government are still needed.