Development and Validation of a Prognostic Risk Score System for COVID-19 Inpatients:A Multi-Center Retrospective Study in China

• 作者: Ye Yuan Chuan Sun Xiuchuan Tang Cheng Cheng Laurent Mombaerts Maolin Wang Tao Hu Chenyu Sun Yuqi Guo Xiuting Li Hui Xu Tongxin Ren Yang Xiao Yaru Xiao Hongling Zhu Honghan Wu Kezhi Li Churning Chen Yingxia Liu Zhichao Liang Zhiguo Cao Hai-Tao Zhang Ioannis Ch.Paschaldis Quanying Liu Jorge Goncalves Qiang Zhong Li Yan
• 来源期刊: 工程（英文）
• 年，卷（期）: 2022,（1）
• 所属期刊栏目: Coronavirus Disease 2019-Article
• 页码范围: 116-121
• 页数: 6页
• 语种: 英文

摘要

Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)has become a worldwide pandemic.Hospitalized patients of COVID-19 suffer from a high mortality rate,motivating the development of convenient and practical methods that allow clinicians to promptly identify high-risk patients.Here,we have developed a risk score using clinical data from 1479 inpatients admitted to Tongji Hospital,Wuhan,China(development cohort)and externally validated with data from two other centers:141 inpatients from Jinyintan Hospital,Wuhan,China(validation cohort 1)and 432 inpatients from The Third People's Hospital of Shenzhen,Shenzhen,China(validation cohort 2).The risk score is based on three biomarkers that are readily available in routine blood samples and can easily be translated into a probability of death.The risk score can predict the mortality of individual patients more than 12 d in advance with more than 90％accuracy across all cohorts.Moreover,the Kaplan-Meier score shows that patients can be clearly dif-ferentiated upon admission as low,intermediate,or high risk,with an area under the curve(AUC)score of 0.9551.In summary,a simple risk score has been validated to predict death in patients infected with sev-ere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2);it has also been validated in independent cohorts.