Study on Refined Forecast Method of Daily Maximum Temperature in Wugang City from July to September

• 作者: DAI Chuan-hong HE Wei-hui LIAO Ren-guo LIU Xu-lin LV Xiao-hua
• 来源期刊: 气象与环境研究：英文版
• 学科: 地球科学
• 关键词: 日最高气温 舞钢市 预报方法 预测方程 回归误差 ECMWF MOS方法 模式集成
• 年，卷（期）: 2012,（3）
• 页码范围: 6-8
• 页数: 3页
• 分类号: P457

摘要

[Objective]The aim was to study the refined forecast method of daily highest temperature in Wugang City from July to September.[Method]By dint of ECMWF mode product and T231 in 2009 and 2010 and daily maximum temperature in the station in corresponding period,multi-factors similar forecast method to select forecast sample,multivariate regression multi-mode integration MOS method,after dynamic corrected mode error and regression error,dynamic forecast equation was concluded to formulate the daily maximum temperature forecast in 24-120 h in Wugang City from July to September.[Result]Through selection,error correction,the daily maximum temperature equation in Wugang City from July to September was concluded.Through multiple random sampling,F test was made to pass test with significant test of 0.1.[Conclusion]The method integrated domestic and foreign forecast mode,made full use of useful information of many modes,absorbed each others advantages,considered local regional environment,lessen mode and regression error,and improved forecast accuracy.