Precipitation Extremes Analysis over the Brazilian Northeast via Logistic Regression

• 作者: Maria Helena Constantino Spyrides Paulo Sérgio Lucio Washington Luiz Félix Correia Filho
• 来源期刊: 大气和气候科学(英文)
• 学科: 地球科学
• 关键词: Odds Ratio ROC CURVE OUTGOING Longwave Radiation SEMIARID Region
• 年，卷（期）: 2014,（1）
• 页码范围: 53-59
• 页数: 7页
• 分类号: P4

摘要

This work diagnosed the precipitation extremes over the Brazilian Northeast (NEB) based on logistic regression for obtaining associations between precipitation extremes and the meteorological variables by Odd Ratio (OR). Data of ten meteorological variables to the NEB (North (NNEB), East (ENEB), South (SNEB) and Semiarid (SANEB)) were used daily. The OR results evidenced that the outgoing longwave radiation was the key variable on the precipitation extremes detection in three sub-regions: ENEB with 2.91 times (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.11, 4.02), NNEB with 3.63 times (95% CI: 1.93, 6.83), and SANEB with 5.40 times (95% CI: 3.04, 9.61);while on SNEB, it was relative humidity with 3.88 times (95% CI: 2.89, 5.20) more chance to favor the precipitation extremes. The maximum temperature, zonal wind component, evaporation, specific humidity and RH also had influence on these extremes. Goodness-of-fit and ROC analysis demonstrated that all models had a good fit and good predictive capability.