Research and Analysis on Refined Precipitation Forecast Method of Highway during Flood Season in Gansu Province

• 作者: He Jinmei Li Zhaorong Liu Kang Wang Dongmei Wang Yousheng Yang Ruihong Yin Chun Zhang Yu
• 来源期刊: 气象与环境研究：英文版
• 学科: 地球科学
• 关键词: 高速公路 降水资料 甘肃省 预报方法 汛期 多元线性回归方程 数值预报产品 预测效果
• 年，卷（期）: 2015,（1）
• 页码范围: 23-28
• 页数: 6页
• 分类号: P457.6

摘要

In this paper,T639 global spectral model numerical forecast products issued by numerical prediction center of China Meteorological Administration and precipitation data at 676 regional stations of Gansu during flood season were used firstly for interpretation.Then,through the establishment of multiple linear stepwise regression equation,daily precipitation forecast with the time interval of 6hduring 0-72 hin May,2013 in Gansu Province was obtained.By precipitation forecast verification analysis,it was found that the precipitation forecast in Hexi region and central Gansu Province had best effect;forecast in some places of east Hedong region had relatively good effect;part of the city or state forecast effect in the plateau slope zone was relatively lower.The refined precipitation forecast had certain reference and use value in the post-production Gansu Province highway forecasting during flood season.