Modelling the Impact of Stages of HIV Progression on Estimates

• 作者: Angelina Mageni Lutambi
• 来源期刊: 传染病进展(英文)
• 学科: 医学
• 关键词: HIV STAGES Transmission Mathematical MODEL Population Dynamics MODEL ESTIMATES
• 年，卷（期）: 2015,（3）
• 页码范围: 101-113
• 页数: 13页
• 分类号: R73

摘要

HIV/AIDS is a public health problem especially in sub-Saharan Africa where majority of infections and deaths occur. Despite the large number of studies and efforts made in covering the data gap using mathematical models, little is known on how model estimates are confounded by the transmission variabilities that exist in stages of HIV progression. This work investigates the impact of including stages of HIV transmission in HIV/AIDS models. A deterministic HIV/AIDS model is developed and extended to include stages of HIV progression of infected individuals. Theoretical investigation of the models and numerical analyses indicate that the two models produce different estimates, with the model without stages producing lower estimates than the staged model. These results call for a careful consideration in evaluating the efficiency of HIV/AIDS models that are used to estimate and project the burden of HIV/AIDS disease.