Statistical Data Analyses on Aircraft Accidents in Japan: Occurrences, Causes and Countermeasures

• 作者: Kunimitsu Iwadare Tatsuo Oyama
• 来源期刊: 美国运筹学期刊(英文)
• 学科: 医学
• 关键词: STATISTICAL Data ANALYSIS AIRCRAFT Accidents CAUSES of AIRCRAFT Accidents Accident-Prevention Measures Mathematical Model ANALYSIS Exponential DISTRIBUTION Negative BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
• 年，卷（期）: 2015,（3）
• 页码范围: 222-245
• 页数: 24页
• 分类号: R73

摘要

We investigate the major characteristics of the occurrences, causes of and counter measures for aircraft accidents in Japan. We apply statistical data analysis and mathematical modeling techniques to determine the relations among economic growth, aviation demand, the frequency of aircraft/helicopter accidents, the major characteristics of the occurrence intervals of accidents, and the number of fatalities due to accidents. The statistical model analysis suggests that the occurrence intervals of accidents and the number of fatalities can be explained by probability distributions such as the exponential distribution and the negative binomial distribution, respectively. We show that countermeasures for preventing accidents have been developed in every aircraft model, and thus they have contributed to a significant decrease in the number of accidents in the last three decades. We find that the major cause of accidents involving large airplanes has been weather, while accidents involving small airplanes and helicopters are mainly due to the pilot error. We also discover that, with respect to accidents mainly due to pilot error, there is a significant decrease in the number of accidents due to the aging of airplanes, whereas the number of accidents due to weather has barely declined. We further determine that accidents involving small and large airplanes mostly occur during takeoff and landing, whereas those involving helicopters are most likely to happen during flight. In order to decrease the number of accidents, i) enhancing safety and security by further developing technologies for aircraft, airports and air control radars, ii) establishing and improving training methods for crew including pilots, mechanics and traffic controllers, iii) tightening public rules, and iv) strengthening efforts made by individual aviation-related companies are absolutely necessary.