Prediction of Coal Consumption in China Based on the Partial Linear Model

• 作者: Chunxiang ZHAO Ying XIE
• 来源期刊: 亚洲农业研究：英文版
• 学科: 经济
• 关键词: COAL CONSUMPTION Principal COMPONENT ANALYSIS Part
• 年，卷（期）: 2015,（6）
• 页码范围: 21-23
• 页数: 3页
• 分类号: F426.21

摘要

China is one of the few countries using coal as the main energy and is the world’s second largest coal consumer. Researching the coal consumption is very necessary. At present,the prediction model of coal consumption is mainly based on time series analysis of price,and it rarely considers the influence of other factors. In this paper,on the basis of demand theory,we establish the multiple impact indicators,and use principal component analysis as well as partial linear model for multiple factors to establish coal consumption model. By using this model to forecast the coal consumption in 2011,we find that the predicted value is close to actual value,which means that the model is good.