The Influence of the Two-child Policy on Urbanization in China

• 作者: Hu Yu Kaiyong Wang
• 来源期刊: 地理研究(英文)
• 学科: 地球科学
• 关键词: Two-child POLICY POPULATION Pattern Urban and RURAL land use URBANIZATION China
• 年，卷（期）: 2018,（1）
• 页码范围: 32-42
• 页数: 11页
• 分类号: P

摘要

Family planning has been China's basic national policy since 1980, but it changed from a onechild policy to a two-child policy at the end of 2015 as which will further stimulate the rapid growth of China's population and have a profound impact on the population structure and land use in China. Based on the forecast of total population change in national and provincial dimensions after the two -child policy, the paper forecasted the spatial pattern of China's population and provincial differentiation over the next 15 years, and discussed the far-reaching impact on the future urban and rural land use and planning. Conclusions as follows: the two-child policy will achieve rapid population growth in the next 5 years, then there will be a stable growth phase;the peak of China's population increase will occur in 2030 with a total population of about 1.55 billion people, which will continue the regional differentiation of urbanization, and urbanization level in southeastern region will remain generally higher than that of the northwest. In addition, population growth brings new demands in urban and rural construction land, therefore, more intensive use of land will be the inevitable choice for the future development for China.