Determination of the Real Dotation and Forecast of the Potable Water System in the Huancavelica City, Peru

• 作者: Abdon Olivera Quintanilla Cristel Aguirre Vera Eleuterio Alcántara Espinoza Hugo Lujan Jeri Iván Ayala Bizarro Ivette Contreras Espinoza Jorge Ortega Vargas Marco López Barrantes
• 来源期刊: 环境科学与工程:A
• 学科: 经济
• 关键词: DRINKING WATER REAL CONSUMPTION critical DEMAND forecasting DRINKING WATER
• 年，卷（期）: 2019,（6）
• 页码范围: 241-248
• 页数: 8页
• 分类号: F42

摘要

The research entitled,“Determination of the Real Dotation and Forecast of the Potable Water System in the Huancavelica city-Peru”,has as objective to determine and analyze the actual endowment and prognosis of the drinking water system in the city of Huancavelica.The city of Huancavelica has a population of approximately 50,000.00 inhabitants and 10,680.00 users of drinking water and sewerage according to the source Companies Providing This Service,the same one that is located in the western chain and central saw range of Perúand belongs to a cold climate.The sample was extracted through Companies Providing This Service EMAPA Huancavelica SA(Anonymous Society),which corresponds to 1,296 data from the consumption of water in cubic meters of each dwelling located in the various categories of each sector.The results obtained from the research indicate that the category that consumed more water during the period 2004-2018 was the domestic category,the same one that had an average of 1,152,123 cubic meters,this is due to the population growth of each year.On the other side,the category that consumed the least water was the social category,the average consumption of which was 11,903.47 cubic meters.In addition,the greatest variability in water consumption is in the state category,the total variation being equal to 21.6%.In the Huancavelica city,water consumption has a growing trend and to predict the volume of drinking water consumption by 2030,water consumption was transformed by first differences,using the ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)model for total consumption model(0-1-1)(2-0-0)-12 and for the domestic consumption the ARIMA model(0-1-2)(0-0-2)-12.On the other hand,water consumption was analyzed on a monthly basis in which there is greater variability for the months June-6 and December-12.It was taken into account for the calculation of the endowment the domestic consumption,having values ranging from 6.45 L/inhab/day until 1,460 L/inhab/day,which reflects a considerable variation to consider