Third assessment on impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones in the Typhoon Committee Region-Part Ⅱ:Future projections

• 作者: Eun Jeong Cha Ming Ying Thomas R.Knutson Toshiyuki Nakaegawa Tsz-Cheung Lee
• 来源期刊: 热带气旋研究与评论:英文版
• 学科: 地球科学
• 关键词: Tropical cyclones Climate change Westerm North Pacifie Typhoon Comitte Projections
• 年，卷（期）: 2020,（2）
• 页码范围: 75-86
• 页数: 12页
• 分类号: P467

摘要

This paper assesses published findings on projections of future tropical cyclone(TC)activity in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Region under climate change scenarios.This assessment also estimates the projected changes of key TC metrics for a 2℃anthropogenic global warming scenario for the western North Pacific(WNP)following the approach of a WMO Task Team,together with other reported findings for this region.For projections of TC genesis/frequency,most models suggest a reduction of TC frequency,but an increase in the proportion of very intense TCs over the WNP in the future.However,some individual studies project an increase in WNP TC frequency.Most studies agree on a projected increase of WNP TC intensity over the 21 st century.All available projections for TC related precipitation in the WNP indicate an increase in TC related precipitation rate in a warmer climate.Anthropogenic warming may also lead to changes in TC prevailing tracks.A further increase in storm surge risk may result from increases in TC intensity.The most confident aspect of forced anthropogenic change in TC inundation risk derives from the highly confident expectation of further sea level rise,which we expect will exacerbate storm inundation risk in coastal regions,assuming all other factors equal.