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摘要:
Diabetes has become a concern in the developed and developing countries with its growing number of patients reported to the ministry of health records. This paper discusses the use of the Autoregressive Fractional Moving Average (ARFIMA) technique to modeling the diabetes patient’s attendance at Al-Baha hospitals using monthly time series data. The data used in the analysis of this paper are monthly readings of diabetes patients data covered the period January 2006-December 2016. The data were collected from the General Directorate of Health Affairs, Al-Baha region. The autoregressive fractional moving average approach was applied to the data through the model identification, estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting. Hurst test results and ACF confirmed that there is a long memory behavior in diabetic patient’s data. Also, the fractional difference to diabetes series data revealed that (<em>d</em> = 0.44). Moreover, unit root tests indicated that the fractional difference of diabetes series level is stationary. Furthermore, according to AIC and BIC of model selection criteria ARFIMA (1, 0.44, 0) model shown the smallest values, hence this model was chosen as an adequate represents the data. Also, a diagnostic check confirmed that ARFIMA was appropriate and highly recommended in modeling and forecasting this type of data.
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篇名 Forecasting Diabetes Patients Attendance at Al-Baha Hospitals Using Autoregressive Fractional Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) Models
来源期刊 数据分析和信息处理(英文) 学科 医学
关键词 Long Memory ARFIMA Rescaled Range R/S Method Diabetes Patients
年,卷(期) 2020,(3) 所属期刊栏目
研究方向 页码范围 183-194
页数 12页 分类号 R58
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Long
Memory
ARFIMA
Rescaled
Range
R/S
Method
Diabetes
Patients
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期刊影响力
数据分析和信息处理(英文)
季刊
2327-7211
武汉市江夏区汤逊湖北路38号光谷总部空间
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106
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0
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