An edge-based model for non-Markovian sexually transmitted infections in coupled network

• 作者: Junyuan Yang Xiaofeng Luo Zhen Jin
• 来源期刊: 生物数学学报:英文版
• 学科: 数学
• 关键词: Coupled network EBCM non-Markovian process sexually transmitted disease EPIDEMIC age-structured
• 年，卷（期）: 2020,（2）
• 页码范围: 119-153
• 页数: 35页
• 分类号: O17

摘要

In this paper,allowing for general transmission and recovery times distributions,we proposed an edge-based age-structured-like compartmental model for STIs(EBACMS)in a coupled nctwork.We considered sexual transmissions between men with also heterosexual contacts.Mathematically,we gave the general approach of proving the nonnegativity of solutions for the system coupling ordinary and partial differen-tial equations,which can be applied to all edge-based compartment models.We then analyzed the epidemic threshold Ro with different distributions which couples the thresholds of the single-layer and bipartite networks in the percolation theory.We also studied the global stability of disease-free equilibrium with R0<1 and the final epidemic size F(the proportion of the population experiencing infection during the epidemic)with R0>1.In addition,numerical simulations indicated that given a fixed exponential transmission distribution,a higher variance(with same mean)in general recovery distribution gives smaller R0 and F.Sensitivity analysis on Ro and F in terms of the parameters illustrated that male-to-male transmission routes have a greater impact on Rg and F than the heterosexual transmission routes for the Markovian transmission process and arbitrary recovery process.The results provide a good theoretical guideline to consider the distributions of real-world STIs.