The Import Trade Forecasting Model Based on PCA: Evidence from Rwanda

• 作者: Yongzhong Zhu
• 来源期刊: 统计学期刊(英文)
• 学科: 经济
• 关键词: Principal Component Analysis Import Trade Influencing Factors Policy-makers
• 年，卷（期）: tjxqkyw_2020,（4）
• 页码范围: 678-693
• 页数: 16页
• 分类号: F75

摘要

A developing country like Rwanda heavily </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">is </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">keen </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">on</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> international trade for several essential goods</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> in the development of an economy. This study investigated the influence of various factors affecting import trade, and use principal component analysis to determine an empirical model for a comprehensive analysis of the influencing factors of import trade of Rwanda using secondary data </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">over the period from 1980-2017. The PCA model</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> showed that Rwanda’s import trade is principally littered with investment fundamental factors, income consumption factors, price factors, inflation factors, and savings factors and the empirical results showed that Rwanda’s import trade is negatively correlated with the investment fundamental and savings factors, the income consumption factors, price factor, and the inflation are positively correlated and therefore the </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">forecast for the period 2018-2025 revealed that the import trade of Rwanda may experience an increase. The implication is that unstable price and currency depreciation cause high income consumption and increased import trade volume. The study advises policy makers on international trade first to </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">pay attention to the accumulation of investment and savings checking if providing support for import trade control and enhance economic security. Second, stabiliz</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">e</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> the price and manage to keep inflation low and stable. </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Third, better </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">focus on improving domestic production by not permitting Rwandan currency (Frw) to lose the worth, thus directly