A Study on the Global Scenario of COVID-19 Related Case Fatality Rate, Recovery Rate and Prevalence Rate and Its Implications for India—A Record Based Retrospective Cohort Study

• 作者: K. P. Suresh R. Shinduja Radheshyam Naik Vinod K. Ramani
• 来源期刊: 传染病进展(英文)
• 学科: 医学
• 关键词: Case Fatality Rate COVID-19 Prevalence Rate Recovery Rate Statistical Analysis
• 年，卷（期）: 2020,（S1）
• 页码范围: 233-248
• 页数: 16页
• 分类号: R37

摘要

<strong>Importance:</strong> Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the pandemic claiming millions of lives since the first outbreak was reported in Wuhan, China during December 2019. It is thus important to make cross-country comparison of the relevant rates and understand the socio-demographic risk factors. <strong>Methods: </strong>This is a record based retrospective cohort study. <strong>Table 1</strong> was extracted from <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/" target="_blank">https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/</a> and from the Corona virus resource center (<strong>Table 2</strong>, <strong>Figures 1-3</strong>), Johns Hopkins University. Data for <strong>Table 1</strong> includes all countries which reported >1000 cases and <strong>Table 2</strong> includes 20 countries reporting the largest number of deaths. The estimation of CFR, RR and PR of the infection, and disease pattern across geographical clusters in the world is presented. <strong>Results:</strong> From <strong>Table 1</strong>, we could infer that as on 4^th May 2020, COVID-19 has rapidly spread world-wide with total infections of 3,566,423 and mortality of 248,291. The maximum morbidity is in USA with 1,188,122 cases and 68,598 deaths (CFR 5.77%, RR 15% and PR 16.51%), while Spain is at the second position with 247,122 cases and 25,264 deaths (CFR 13.71%, RR 38.75%, PR 9.78%). <strong>Table 2</strong> depicts the scenario as on 8^th October 2020, where-in the highest number of confirmed cases occurred in US followed by India and Brazil (cases per million population: 23,080, 5007 & 23,872 respectively). For deaths per million population: US recorded 647, while India and Brazil recorded 77 and 708 respectively. <strong>Conclusion:</strong> Studying the distribution of relevant rates across different geographical clusters plays a major role for measuring the disease burden, which in-turn enables implementation of appropriate public