Dynamic Assessment of Global Maize Exposure to Extremely High Temperatures

• 作者: Yuan Gao Peng Su Anyu Zhang Ran Wang Jing'ai Wang
• 来源期刊: 国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）
• 年，卷（期）: 2021,（5）
• 所属期刊栏目: ARTICLES
• 页码范围: 713-730
• 页数: 18页
• 语种: 英文

摘要

Exposure to extreme heat can severely harm crop growth and development,and it is essential to assess such exposure accurately to minimize risks to crop pro-duction.However,the actual distribution of crops and its changes have neither been examined in sufficient detail nor integrated into the assessments of exposure to ensure their accuracy.By examining the distribution of maize at a high resolution through species distribution modeling,we assessed the past and future exposure of maize to temper-atures above 37℃worldwide.Such exposure is likely to be widespread and severe,mainly in the subtropics,and may even expand to the mid-latitudes to encompass some major maize-producing areas.Many areas at both high and low latitudes may become exposed for the first time in the next 20 years.By the 2050s,the total area exposed could increase by up to 185％to 308.18 million ha,of which the area exposed for over 60 days may increase nearly sev-enfold.The average length of exposure may increase by 69％to 27 days,and areas optimally suited to maize planting may see the fastest increase by up to 772％.Extreme heat can threaten global maize production severely,and measures to mitigate that threat and to adapt to it are urgently needed.