Forecast Hesitancy:Why are People Reluctant to Believe,Accept,or Respond to Various Weather,Water,and Climate Hazard-Related Forecasts?

• 作者: Michael H.Glantz Gregory E.Pierce
• 来源期刊: 国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）
• 年，卷（期）: 2021,（4）
• 所属期刊栏目: SHORT ARTICLES
• 页码范围: 600-609
• 页数: 10页
• 语种: 英文

摘要

Current discussions of the social phenomenon of"vaccine hesitancy"with regard to Covid-19 provide an opportunity to use hesitancy as a means to shift thinking about untimely and delayed responses to forecasts of hydrometeorological hazards.Hesitancy,that is,provides a paradigm through which such regrettably delayed respon-ses to hydromet hazards might be better understood and effectively addressed.Without exaggeration,just about every hydromet event provides an example of how hesi-tancy hinders individual,community,and national gov-ernment risk-reducing preventive and mitigative responses to forecasts of foreseeable,relatively near-term climate,water,or weather hazards.Reasons for such hesitancy(for vaccine and forecast use alike)include—among others—lack of trust in the science,lack of confidence in govern-ment,and persistent concern about the uncertainties that surround forecasting—both meteorological and public health.As such,a better understanding of the causes that lead to individual and group hesitancy can better inform hydromet forecasters and affected communities about ways in which beneficial actions in response to timely forecasts are often delayed.This better understanding will facilitate,where necessary,targeted interventions to enhance the societal value of forecasting by reducing this long-ob-served challenge of"forecast hesitancy."First,this article focuses on incidents of"vaccine hesitancy"that,for var-ious reasons,people around the world are even now experiencing with regard to several now-available,and confirmed efficacious,Covid-19 vaccines.Reports of such incidents of indecisiveness first increased dramatically over the first few months of 2021,despite the strong scientific confidence that vaccination would significantly lower per-sonal risk of contracting as well as spreading the virus.After,the notion of forecast hesitancy with regard to hydrometeorological hazards is discussed.It's not what you say,it's what people hear.-Frank Luntz(2007)