Characteristics Analysis and Risk Assessment of Extreme Water Levels Based on 60-Year Observation Data in Xiamen, China

• 作者: MIAO Qingsheng YUE Xinyang YANG Jinkun WANG Zhifeng XU Shanshan YANG Yang CHU Siqi
• 来源期刊: 中国海洋大学学报（自然科学英文版）
• 年，卷（期）: 2022,（2）
• 所属期刊栏目: Marine and Atmospheric Sciences
• 页码范围: 315-322
• 页数: 8页
• 语种: 英文

摘要

Extreme water levels are related to astronomical tides and storm surges. Eleven typhoon systems, which have caused extreme water level rises, were selected based on 60-yr water level data from the Xiamen tide gauge station. In these 11 typhoon systems, the astronomical tide component accounts for 71％ – 95％ of the total water level. The Gumbel distribution of extreme water level rise was estimated, and the impact of typhoon surges on water levels during the return period was analyzed. The ex-treme tide levels caused by typhoons Herb (1996) and Dujuan (2015) are much higher than those of other typhoons and correspond to the return period of 76 yr and 71 yr, respectively. The differences of sea levels in the presence and absence of these two typhoons in the 10 – 100 yr return period are 5.8 – 11.1 cm. For the 100-yr return period, the total risks within 10, 25, 50, and 100 yr increase by 94.3％, 85.4％, 72.9％, and 54.4％, respectively, if the Herb and Dujuan are not considered. Assuming that typhoon Herb (1996) occurred during the highest astronomical tide, it will produce a water level higher than that of the 1000-yr return period. Sea level rise has an important influence on the water level return period, and the contribution of nonlinear sea level rise in the next 100 yr is estimated to be 10.34％.